Accra: Standard Bank's Head of Africa Research, Jibran Qureishi, has projected that Ghana's economy is set to expand by 5.9 percent to 6.1 percent in 2026, driven by structural support from the expansion of gold mining, critical infrastructure projects, and improved foreign exchange buffers.
According to Ghana Web, the economy's stronger-than-expected performance in 2025, achieving 6 percent growth against initial forecasts of 5.6-5.8 percent, has bolstered confidence in the medium-term outlook. Speaking at a webinar organized by Stanbic Bank Ghana, Qureishi emphasized that "growth exceeded our expectations, printing at 6 percent for 2025. Given the base has changed now and is higher than we had expected, we still believe that growth in 2026 will be between 5.9 percent and 6.1 percent, with potential to pick up to between 6.2 percent and 6.3 percent in 2027."
This revised outlook reflects an upgraded assessment of Ghana's growth trajectory, underpinned by public investment and private sector expansion in key economic drivers. Significant public investment in infrastructure has considerably strengthened the growth outlook. Qureishi highlighted ongoing projects, such as the Tema Port expansion, commissioned in the fourth quarter of 2025, the Accra-Tema motorway expansion, and the Kumasi airport reconstruction.
These initiatives are expected to generate multiplier effects across the economy. Enhanced oversight from the newly established coal board is anticipated to reduce illicit flows in artisanal mining, a move that could stimulate fresh investment in the mining sector and improve operational efficiency across the industry.
The Bank of Ghana's domestic gold purchase program has emerged as a critical buffer to external shocks, despite recent accounting losses from high sterilization costs associated with excess liquidity in the market. Policymakers remain committed to the program, viewing its benefits to Ghana's external position as outweighing short-term financial pressures. Qureishi explained, "The sterilization cost is what has ultimately predominantly caused this loss for the Bank of Ghana. However, in our discussions with policymakers and authorities in Ghana, we still expect them to remain steadfast on the domestic gold purchase program."
Standard Bank maintains a positive medium-term outlook for gold prices, supported by robust demand from emerging market central banks and expectations that the dollar index will eventually decline. This perspective is crucial for Ghana, as gold exports continue to rise despite international price volatility.
Foreign investor participation in Ghana's local debt market has shrunk dramatically to less than 5 percent, down from nearly 40 percent before the pandemic. While this creates challenges for external financing, it has paradoxically insulated Ghana from external portfolio volatility, making it what Standard Bank terms 'a low beta market' with reduced external shocks. This structural shift enhances Ghana's ability to maintain steady growth regardless of global market turbulence, providing a foundation for the projected expansion in 2026 and beyond.