Sissala east: The June 2026 Global InfoAnalytics poll, spearheaded by Mussa K Dankwah, provides an illuminating glimpse into the changing political dynamics of Sissala East as the 2028 general elections approach. This poll, while not a definitive election prediction, offers valuable insights into voter sentiment, candidate appeal, and emerging electoral trends in the region.
According to Ghana Web, the poll, when juxtaposed with the Electoral Commission's historical election results from 2004 to 2024, highlights a constituency in political transition. Notably, the current Member of Parliament from the NDC enjoys a high approval rating, yet the party's prospective presidential candidates lag behind the performance of President John Dramani Mahama in the 2024 elections. Meanwhile, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia has made significant inroads, closing the gap with the NDC.
Sissala East has historically been perceived by some as an NDC bastion, but election results since its establishment in 2004 reveal a lack of sustained dominance by any one party. The constituency has seen frequent power shifts, with no incumbent MP securing re-election, underscoring its volatile political nature. This pattern, characterized by alternating party preference and instances of split-ticket voting, suggests that Sissala East may be evolving into a key battleground in Ghanaian politics.
The 2026 poll tested potential NDC presidential candidates against Dr Bawumia of the NPP. In one scenario, the poll indicated a statistical tie between Ato Baah Forson of the NDC and Dr Bawumia, each securing 47% support. In another scenario, Johnson Asiedu Nketia of the NDC led with 51% against Dr Bawumia's 46%, albeit with a narrower margin than the NDC's 2024 performance.
The poll also assessed the sitting MP's performance, revealing an overall approval rating of 77%, with 69% rating the MP's performance as excellent or good. However, the absence of an NPP challenger might influence voter perceptions once a candidate is fielded.
Comparative analysis with the 2024 general election results shows a significant shift in voter sentiment. Dr Bawumia's support has risen by approximately 15 to 16 percentage points from 2024, while NDC presidential support has declined by 16 to 21 percentage points. This trajectory suggests the potential for a dramatic political shift by 2028.
The findings pose challenges for the NDC, which is experiencing a decline in presidential support just two years into its term. This trend, coupled with the MP's popularity not fully translating to presidential support, raises the possibility of split-ticket voting akin to patterns observed in previous elections.
The poll, however, did not capture key policy issues pertinent to the constituency, particularly in agriculture, which dominates Sissala East's economy. Future polls need to address these concerns to provide a more comprehensive understanding of voter priorities.
Internally, the NDC's upcoming constituency elections and primaries will be crucial in shaping its strategy for 2028. The party must manage these processes carefully to avoid internal discord that could undermine its electoral prospects.
For the NPP, the poll suggests strategic priorities, including early candidate selection, a focus on agricultural issues, and capitalizing on the government's unfulfilled promises. Building on Dr Bawumia's gains and targeting split-ticket voters will be essential for the party's success.
In conclusion, the poll underscores Sissala East's potential as a swing constituency in the 2028 elections. The evolving political landscape, marked by voter volatility and shifting allegiances, positions Sissala East as a critical constituency to watch in the upcoming elections.