Accra: The Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI) has cautioned that while Ghana's strong gold earnings have improved the country's fiscal outlook, they obscure significant risks in the petroleum sector and governance. The institute is urging the government to implement sustainable reforms to ensure long-term economic stability.
According to Ghana News Agency, the NRGI's concerns and recommendations follow the presentation of the 2026 Mid-Year Budget Review by Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson, the Minister for Finance, which emphasized economic growth, job creation, and national development. In an interview, Mr. Patrick Kwabena Stephenson, the Country Manager of NRGI, highlighted that despite the positive impact of gold exports and favorable international commodity prices on Ghana's fiscal position, the petroleum sector's structural weaknesses and governance gaps require urgent policy intervention.
Stephenson pointed out that the 2026 Budget took a cautious approach to the petroleum sector, projecting a decline in crude oil production to 37.95 million barrels, a significant drop from the 46.35 million barrels projected for 2025. This decline is attributed to maturing oil fields, reserve depletion, and reduced sector performance rather than temporary market fluctuations.
The Africa Centre for Energy Policy (ACEP) had previously reported a 15% year-on-year decline in oil production and a 35.7% decrease in petroleum receipts in 2025, exacerbated by aging oil fields and policy uncertainty. Although Brent crude prices remained above budget expectations, leading to an increase in expected petroleum revenues from US$985 million to nearly US$1.5 billion, these gains were driven by higher prices rather than fundamental sector improvements.
In contrast, the mining sector has significantly exceeded budget expectations, driven by high gold prices and increased production, particularly in the Artisanal and Small-scale Mining (ASM) subsector. However, this rapid expansion has raised concerns about illegal mining, gold smuggling, and regulatory oversight, prompting measures requiring licensed gold buyers to register purchases promptly.
Stephenson acknowledged that stronger gold export earnings have bolstered Ghana's macroeconomic position, improving foreign exchange inflows and increasing international reserves. The success of aggregation models and the Gold Reserve Accumulation Programme has helped stabilize the country's external position amid constrained international financing access.
Despite these achievements, Stephenson warned that Ghana's growing dependence on gold poses long-term risks, as export earnings become increasingly concentrated in a single commodity, exposing the country to price volatility similar to the petroleum sector. He emphasized the need for a comprehensive mineral revenue management framework to stabilize revenue, ensure long-term savings, and facilitate strategic investment.
The NRGI called on the government to review the fiscal regime governing the extractive sector and establish a clear implementation timetable to restore investor confidence and attract petroleum exploration and upstream investments. It also urged the government to account for resources held in suspense accounts under the Big Push infrastructure program and provide full disclosure on all ABFA-funded projects.
Further concerns were raised about petroleum revenues retained outside the accountability framework, with recommendations to align all revenues with the Petroleum Revenue Management Act's reporting and oversight mechanisms. The institute also called for transparency in proposed uses of the Heritage Fund and the publication of the National Petroleum Revitalisation Strategy for public scrutiny.
The NRGI recommended clarifying the future of statutory funding arrangements, updating plans for gas processing infrastructure, and ensuring fiscal discipline does not hinder the Energy Sector Recovery Programme. It also urged reforms in the Electricity Company of Ghana, the establishment of a Mineral Revenue Management Act, and greater clarity on the Minerals Income Investment Fund's mandate.
Finally, the institute emphasized the need for governance arrangements guiding GoldBod's responsibilities and recommended simplified fiscal and licensing arrangements for artisanal and small-scale mining. Stephenson concluded that sustainable economic growth in Ghana depends on strengthening governance, improving transparency, and building resilient institutions to manage the country's natural resource wealth.