Accra: Global air cargo demand experienced a significant drop in March 2026, declining by 4.8 per cent year-on-year, even as passenger traffic saw a modest rise, increasing by 2.1 per cent over the same period. According to Ghana Web, the latest figures released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on Wednesday highlight the contrasting trends within the aviation industry.
This dual performance underscores the industry's multifaceted nature, with cargo operators facing challenges from geopolitical disruptions and rising fuel costs, while passenger airlines continue to thrive on consistent travel demand despite economic pressures on travelers. IATA's data revealed that total cargo demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres, decreased by 4.8 per cent compared to March 2025, with cargo capacity also diminishing by 4.7 per cent.
The figures indicated a sharper decline in international cargo operations, which dropped by 5.5 per cent, reflecting the strain on global supply chains exacerbated by instability in the Middle East. IATA Director General, Willie Walsh, attributed the sharp decline to disruptions at key Gulf aviation hubs and the routine slowdown following the Lunar New Year rush.
Walsh remarked that despite the temporary downturn, the broader outlook for freight remains optimistic. He stated, "Air cargo demand fell 4.8 per cent in March compared to the previous year. This was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to the war in the Middle East. The timing of the usual post-Lunar New Year slowdown also added to the decline."
He emphasized the strength of underlying demand trends, citing recent revisions by the World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund to trade and GDP projections, which continue to forecast growth in 2026. "Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff, and operational strains," Walsh added.
Meanwhile, passenger travel demonstrated resilience, with global demand, as measured in revenue passenger kilometres, rising by 2.1 per cent in March compared to the previous year, despite a 1.7 per cent decrease in total capacity. The global load factor increased to 83.6 per cent, indicating that more seats were filled despite the challenges facing international operations.
Domestic travel emerged as the primary driver of growth, increasing by 6.5 per cent, while international demand saw a slight decline of 0.6 per cent. The decrease was significantly affected by a 60.8 per cent drop in international traffic by airlines in the Middle East, where carriers are contending with airspace restrictions and regional instability. Walsh noted that the passenger market could have performed better if not for the Gulf region's crisis.
He explained, "Demand for air travel continued to grow in March despite disruptions in the Middle East. The nearly 61 per cent decline in international traffic by carriers in the Middle East did, however, restrain global growth to 2.1 per cent. Outside of the Middle East, demand grew by eight per cent."
Walsh cautioned that airlines are increasingly concerned about fuel market dynamics, as costs pose a threat to both cargo and passenger operations. He warned, "Everybody's watching what's happening with jet fuel, both supply and pricing. On the supply side, over the next months, we could see shortages in parts of the world with high dependence on supplies from the Gulf, especially Asia and Europe."