Accra:Bangkok The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its forecast for Ghana's economic growth in 2026 to 5.7%, an increase from the 4.6% projection made in April. The IMF also anticipates a decrease in inflation to 4.8% by the end of the year.
According to Ghana Web, the revised growth forecast results from the government's efforts to manage spending, stimulate economic activity, and boost export earnings, especially from gold. These efforts have contributed to an improved trade balance and enhanced financial reserves for Ghana. The country's adherence to targets under the IMF's Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) programme has further supported the positive outlook.
Despite the promising projections, the IMF has expressed concerns about Ghana's dependency on gold exports and has advised the government to diversify its export base to mitigate risks associated with fluctuations in global gold prices. The Fund predicts a slightly slower economic growth rate of 5.2% for Ghana in 2027.
The IMF's latest forecast surpasses the Ghanaian government's own growth estimate of 4.8% for 2026. Data from the Ghana Statistical Service reveal that Ghana's economy expanded by 6.0% in the second quarter of 2026, leading to a 6.2% growth for the first half of the year.
The IMF has also adjusted its year-end inflation forecast for Ghana to 4.8%, down from the 7.9% forecast in April, which is below the government's and the Bank of Ghana's target range of 6% to 10%. As of September, Ghana's inflation rate was 5.2%, with expectations of further deceleration by year-end. Achieving this forecast would mean Ghana records single-digit inflation for the second year in a row, following a similar outcome in 2025.
Meanwhile, the World Bank maintains its forecast for Ghana's economic growth at 4.8% for 2026, with a slight increase to 4.9% anticipated in 2027. The Bank's October 2026 Africa economic update attributes growth to the services sector, a recovery in oil and gas production, and ongoing economic and government spending reforms. Strong domestic demand was noted in the second quarter, with investment up by 53.0% and domestic demand rising by 11.2%, driven by increased spending by households, businesses, and the government.