Accra:Former Finance Minister Dr. Mohammed Amin Adam has cautioned that Ghana's recent debt relief achievements are at risk from fluctuations in exchange rates, commodity-price shocks, and slower economic growth, despite improvements in the reported debt position.
According to Ghana Web, Dr. Amin Adam's analysis revealed that the appreciation of the cedi in 2025 led to a reduction in the cedi value of external debt by GHS125.3 billion, without altering the contractual foreign-currency principal. However, during the period from January to July 2026, while the external debt decreased by approximately US$600 million in dollar terms, it increased by GHS14.8 billion when calculated in cedis.
The provisional debt database indicated that the exchange rate weakened by about 6% between January and July 2026, following a 40.7% appreciation of the cedi in 2025. Dr. Amin Adam noted that these currency movements show how changes in exchange rates can impact reported debt figures, even when foreign-currency obligations remain constant.
He emphasized that a significant reversal in the exchange rate, declining commodity prices, or reduced economic growth could quickly elevate the debt ratio and debt-service burden. Dr. Amin Adam argued that achieving sustainable debt improvement requires more than just favorable exchange-rate movements and high gold prices. It also depends on consistent primary surpluses, reliable revenue collection, disciplined expenditure commitments, and financing at maturities and yields that the state can afford.