Accra: In emerging markets, achieving export success is not just about managing a portfolio of countries; it's about mastering a terrain of rare complexity. Many companies initially approach these markets on a country-by-country basis, but those that endure and thrive have developed a more comprehensive strategy. This approach is still underdeveloped, even among local champions in these regions.
According to Ghana Web, international failures are often attributed to selecting the wrong product or market. However, field observations suggest a more structural cause: the difficulty of managing not just one market, but a multitude. Ferreol Tournebize, who has extensive experience across Africa and the Middle East, notes that in a basket of emerging countries, a few may outperform annually, while others are influenced by factors such as exchange rates, politics, economic cycles, or changes in standards. The majority remain stable without significant growth. The key to growth lies not in one star market but in the disciplined management of this dispersion and surviving the challenging terrain that deters many large groups.
This discipline follows a maturity curve observed globally. Small companies often engage in exports opportunistically, responding to requests or working with distributors without a clear strategy or risk assessment. As companies grow, they become more professional, appointing export managers and building portfolios market by market. Large groups think in terms of regional hubs and constantly balance stability, potential, and investment levels. Moving up this curve means that markets are not just endured but strategically weighted.
The core reasoning behind this approach involves a portfolio effect. With a broad enough basket of countries, the successful ones can elevate the entire portfolio, even if some markets decline. For instance, across twenty-five countries, the aggregated result can remain positive despite a downturn in one fifth of the portfolio. In contrast, with only five or six markets, adverse conditions in just two can jeopardize the entire year's success. Diversification doesn't eliminate risk; it makes it manageable. Each market must be evaluated for its macroeconomic stability, foreign exchange exposure, political risk, and real potential.