Accra:Global cocoa prices have reached their highest point in two weeks following Ghana's decision to increase the payment to cocoa farmers for the 2026/27 crop season.
According to Ghana Web, this new price, set at approximately $3,647 per tonne, marks a 2.4% rise from the previous rate set in February.
This price adjustment has not only boosted cocoa prices on the international market but has also sparked concerns about potential cocoa smuggling from C´te d'Ivoire into Ghana. There is apprehension that Ivorian farmers might transport their cocoa to Ghana to take advantage of the higher prices, which could impact the official cocoa supply arriving at Ivorian ports and ultimately affect global market availability.
Cocoa prices are also being influenced by concerns over future production in West Africa. The US Climate Prediction Center has highlighted the presence of a strong El Ni±o weather pattern, which could lead to hotter and drier conditions in West Africa, potentially reducing soil moisture, damaging cocoa trees, and decreasing production.
Ghana anticipates a smaller cocoa crop, with the Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) estimating production at about 650,000 tonnes for the 2026/27 season, a 13% decline from the previous season's 750,000 tonnes. Earlier COCOBOD forecasts suggested that production might fall between 450,000 and 550,000 tonnes due to swollen shoot disease, ageing farms, and adverse weather.
Similar production concerns exist in C´te d'Ivoire, the largest cocoa producer globally. Early estimates suggest its 2026/27 production could be around 1.8 million tonnes, down from 2.2 million tonnes the prior season. Issues like poor pod development and the spread of black pod disease in both Ghana and C´te d'Ivoire add to worries about the region's cocoa output.
Despite these challenges, recent cocoa supply figures have been robust. C´te d'Ivoire shipped about 2.18 million tonnes of cocoa to ports between October 2025 and September 2026, marking a nearly 20% increase from the prior year. Ghana also experienced a strong 2025/26 season with production rising to 750,000 tonnes, a 25.6% increase from 597,000 tonnes in 2024/25.
The global cocoa market is experiencing mixed dynamics. While strong current supplies and weaker demand in some markets have exerted downward pressure on prices, factors like Ghana's increased farmer payments, anticipated production declines, and El Ni±o concerns are driving prices upward. Currently, Ghana's latest price increase is adding momentum to the international cocoa market, drawing attention to West African cocoa supplies.