Accra: Ghanaian businesses and households, alongside the government, are preparing for impending price increases in petroleum products as the second pricing window for September approaches, set to take effect from September 16. This anticipation is fueled by the recent rise in the Brent crude oil benchmark, which exceeded US$100 per barrel in early September 2026, posing a fresh inflationary challenge for the nation.
According to Ghana Web, Brent crude settled at US$101.21 per barrel on September 9, and traded above US$105, nearing US$110 on September 11, before stabilizing slightly above US$100 by the weekend. The immediate catalyst for this surge is attributed to heightened security tensions in the Middle East, threatening oil flows through strategic shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
During the period used for Ghana's first September pricing window, Brent prices hovered around US$90-92. Consequently, the significant increase in crude oil prices is expected to impact the second pricing window, starting September 16.
Moreover, the expected rise in petroleum prices coincides with Ghana's largest commercial road transport union, the GPRTU, planning a 30% fare increase on September 21, citing escalating fuel and operational costs. The National Petroleum Authority had already raised the petrol price floor from GHc13.92 to GHc14.53 per litre in the first September window, with diesel rising from GHc15.19 to GHc15.60. However, the government maintained a GHc2-per-litre reduction in the regulatory margin on diesel to mitigate consumer impact.
Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) initially showed restraint in adjusting prices, demonstrating that international oil-price shocks do not directly translate to pump prices in Ghana. OMCs can absorb parts of the increase through margins and competitive pricing, but eventually, the increased costs will reflect in pump prices unless the government intervenes.
The Chamber of Petroleum Consumers (COPEC) has cautioned that the Brent price surge will likely push Ghanaian pump prices higher from September 16. Its Executive Secretary, Duncan Amoah, noted that crude-price changes take time to influence the refining, shipping, and importation chain. Energy economists predict a potential petrol and diesel price rise of approximately 5-10% during the second September window, contingent on Brent maintaining US$100-110 and a stable cedi.
Current projections suggest petrol prices could range between GHc16.20-GHc17.00 per litre, with diesel possibly reaching GHc18.00-GHc19.00 if international conditions persist and margins aren't compressed. These developments come at a critical juncture in Ghana's disinflation process, with consumer inflation falling from 5.3% in June to 4.6% in July, only to rise to 5.0% in August, driven by transport and utility costs.
The GPRTU's proposed fare increase is significant due to the widespread use of public transport by workers, traders, students, and businesses. The government faces several options, though none are without cost. Extending or increasing the diesel intervention could impose a fiscal burden, especially if Brent prices continue to rise.
Moreover, targeted interventions for essential sectors could offer a more economical solution than universal subsidies. Engaging OMCs to temporarily moderate margins is another potential strategy. However, experts caution against administratively suppressing fares, as this could burden drivers and operators financially, risking service quality.
For Ghana, a temporary Brent price of US$100 is challenging but manageable. The greater concern would be if Brent remains above US$100 for an extended period.