Accra: The global economy has remained resilient despite pressures from geopolitical tensions, inflation, and uneven growth prospects, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said. Julie Kozack, Director of the Communications Department at the IMF, told journalists at the Fund's regular press briefing that "the global economy has proven more resilient than many expected."
According to Ghana News Agency, Ms. Kozack explained that while the war shock was weighing on energy importers and vulnerable economies, AI-driven demand was lifting countries integrated into the global technology value chain. She noted that the global economy has weathered the shock of the Middle East war, yet uncertainty is expected to remain elevated.
Julie Kozack further elaborated on the dual impact of recent developments, stating, "Since the war in the Middle East started, we have the negative supply shock, which has pushed up commodity prices, particularly energy, fertiliser and food, and on the other side, we have a positive demand and productivity shock, which is coming from the technology cycle - artificial intelligence (AI-led) investment."
Projections from the July 2026 World Economic Outlook foresee global growth at three per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027, remaining broadly unchanged from April predictions. The assumptions behind these projections include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in mid-July and an average oil price of US$89 per barrel in 2026.
Turning attention to Sub-Saharan Africa, Ms. Kozack indicated that growth in the region is expected to edge down slightly to 4.3 per cent in 2026 from 4.5 per cent in 2025, before returning to 4.5 per cent in 2027. She highlighted that oil exporters in the region are likely to benefit from stronger revenues and improvements to their current accounts.
Ms. Kozack also remarked on the economic context entering 2026, noting stabilization gains, including the fastest pace of economic activity in over a decade in 2025 and falling inflation. She stated, "We entered 2026, and we had another shock and many of the countries who were most vulnerable to that shock - the commodity price shock - affecting fuel prices, fertiliser prices, ultimately food prices, were in Sub-Saharan Africa."
The IMF has responded to these challenges by making available between US$20 billion and US$50 billion in financing to address the impact of the Middle East war, with most vulnerable countries already having IMF-supported programs. Ms. Kozack concluded, "So, our support for them in terms of policy advice, a macroeconomic framework and financing is being done within the existing and in some cases, we have made adjustments to financing either through augmentation or rephasing."